By Joe Savage, Real Estate Broker
The gradually warming national economy was reflected in the growth of local condo sales in 2013. This article will speak to the trends in sales of all condos in Ft. Morgan, Orange Beach, and Gulf Shores, south of the ICW (Intracoastal Waterway and the Gulf Shores beach market). Here are the data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service (MLS) on sales in the beach market.
|
NUMBER OF
CONDOS SOLD
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
YEAR
|
#SOLD
|
GAIN FROM
PREVIOUS YEAR
|
|
2011
|
1,105
|
--
|
|
2012
|
1,115
|
+ 9.85%
|
|
2013
|
1,337
|
+19.90%
|
|
MEDIAN
PRICE PER SQ FT FOR
|
CONDOS SOLD
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
YEAR
|
MED
PRICE/SQ FT
|
GAIN FROM
PREVIOUS YEAR
|
|
2011
|
$198.41
|
--
|
|
2012
|
$227.88
|
+14.85%
|
|
2013
|
$243.17
|
+ 6.71%
|
These include all of the condo sales in these markets, including some which may not be gulf-front. In general, though, we are seeing a nice steady increase in the number of sales from year to year. We are also seeing prices continue to appreciate. We saw this from 2011-2012, and so it appears the worst is now behind us . . . both the number of sales and the prices they fetch are increasing, year over year. From 2008 to 2011, we saw these two statistics in a reciprocal relationship as prices went down, number of sales went up; but as prices went up, number of sales went down. With both price and sales rate going up simultaneously for two years running, it appears we are back in "growth mode."
As of this writing, there are 789 condos currently for sale in this market. That works out to an "absorption rate" of about seven months. That is, if the number of sales for the 12 months of 2013 were to be applied to the current number for sale, it would take about seven months to "absorb" that inventory. That's a far cry from the absorption rates of the past five years, which were often more than 36 months.
This low inventory suggests there may be a "shadow" seller market out there, waiting for the prices to improve sufficiently before bringing their properties to market. We are hoping they don't all come to market at the same time, or we could see prices collapse like they did back in 2008-2009 when the banks dumped all the foreclosures on the market almost as fast as they repossessed them.
Next month, look for the 2013 analysis of sales at the Gulf Shores Plantation. Stay tuned!
